Let's not get blue about swine flu

I had my graduation ceremony this past Tuesday at Georgian College. You can probably guess how much fun I had at a canned ceremony full of talking heads who had absolutely nothing to do with my program (so much for the school being “student-friendly”) telling us all the same clichés about all the potential we’d achieve (including some New Age crap about how some guy felt restricted by “having a finish line”...I guess he never got anything done, did he?), as well as having some “Convocation Marshalls” who were quite snippy. The only good news was that I saw most of my old classmates, which made the pain of the ceremony a little easier to take.

That wasn’t the worst part of the ceremony- the worst part was when one of the emcees of the ceremony announced that because of “fears of H1N1” the dignitaries who’d be giving me my diploma and make me feel special to share the stage with them would refuse to shake my hand- never mind that Brian Tamblyn, the president of Georgian, got his head really close to most of us in moving our sash from our arms to our shoulders, allowing us to momentarily share the same airspace face-to-face, which would be enough time with enough proximity to transmit a flu to Mr. Tamblyn anyway, even though he didn’t touch our evil hands. I have to say, it never felt so weird- or more wrong- to get congratulatory “fist pumps” from our teachers instead of a handshake. Hey guys, I’m not Matt Stairs after he hits a home run or that guy who turns everything he touches into Skittles- my hands aren’t evil.

The embarrassing ordeal did get me thinking about this apparent “swine flu” crisis that’s apparently starting to hit our shores as we speak, a fact that was underscored by the death of a 13-year-old male hockey player to H1N1 over the weekend. The player- Evan Frustaglio- apparently came down with the flu, seemingly recovered then unexpectedly collapsed. It was reported that Frustaglio had no prior medical condition, but both a doctor and his father did cite prior respiratory problems in his life, it’s not entirely unprecedented for athletes to experience untimely deaths (look up Sergei Zholtok and Alexei Cherprenov) and one shouldn’t be surprised that a hockey player- playing and sweating in freezing conditions- could get the flu. Frustaglio’s death is unfortunate, but let’s keep it in perspective.

What is the truth regarding H1N1, the stuff the sensationalist media (one Mr. Tamblyn and his staff at Georgian take a little too literally) is not telling you? Well, to begin, we have to start with the flu that the 2009 virus is being compared to and that’s the 1918-19 “Spanish influenza”, currently the deadliest flu outbreak in human history.

First of all, it’s technically incorrect to call it the “Spanish flu”, because it did not originate in- or even hit first- the country of Spain. The reason why it’s called the “Spanish flu” is because when the flu started to hit- in early 1918- World War I was still going on, and Spain was the only country affected by it and reporting on it that was neutral, so it was thought that Spanish authorities were the most trusted sources of information and were largely seen as the only ones really “doing anything about it”. The origin of the flu is not known, but it did hit North America before it hit Europe, and it hit in two waves- first in the summer then in the fall of 1918.

The first wave behaved like a normal flu, with extremely low mortality rates with deaths only in the so-called “expected” groups- infants, the elderly and any other kind of immunocompromised person. Then, in late August, the second wave- the one that would become the famous flu- hit, having a mortality rate between 10-20% of infected cases, with many of those deaths being young, healthy adults between the ages of 20-40. Some of the most famous deaths from the virus include Montreal Canadiens defenceman “Bad” Joe Hall (his death and the sickness of many players forced the cancellation of the 1918 Stanley Cup Final), the first South African Prime Minister Louis Botha and British diplomat and soldier Mark Sykes (whose body would be later exhumed for Spanish flu research). It’s estimated that of the population of people affected by the flu, 50% were infected, leading to the death of between 3-6% of the world’s total population, leading some historians to dub the flu as worse than the 1348 Black Death (that one got 25% of Europe (which was “the world”) which I think makes it worse than the 1918 epidemic but that’s a different debate).

The extremely high infection and death rates, not to mention the population profile of the hardest-hit victims, are the most peculiar aspects of the virus. Many theories have been postulated as to why the virus struck as it did. The cause of death in many of the victims is something called a “cytokine storm”, or basically when the immune system’s response to a pathogen is so strong it starts to hurt the body itself. It is reasoned here that naturally, the immune systems of young adults are stronger than the immune systems of others and would be more susceptible to this kind of attack. However, the reasons why a cytokine storm occurs are not yet fully understood, and there are other reasons why the 1918 flu struck as it did, without having to sensationalize it.

First of all, it was wartime, and not just that but the end of what was a brutal, uncompromising war. Let us not forget that the powers that be in 1914 went to war believing that they’d only be fighting for a few months and weren’t prepared for a five-year war- so they dug trenches and went back and forth shooting at the pathetic attempts to run to the other trench to take it over, the running soldiers mere “moving targets”. You can only imagine what the close quarters of a trench would do, combined with obviously fatigued (and somewhat immunocompromised) soldiers- it’s a perfect powder keg for the emergence of a deadly flu. The other part of the equation is that doctors at the time did not know what they were dealing with, as they would not wear their masks properly (they may cover their mouths but not their noses) and would at times misdiagnose the pathogen altogether. Obviously, now we’re more knowledgeable at handling and identifying the flu (we even have a vaccine for the swine flu) so we’re better prepared for an outbreak. It is also worth noting that sanitary conditions in 1918 were nothing like they are now, to say nothing of the medical conditions. How many of those deaths could be prevented had those other factors been taken into consideration is an open debate, but I believe if the Spanish flu hit today, it wouldn’t be as devastating.

This brings us to the current outbreak. There was an initial frenzy after the flu was first reported in Mexico in late March, providing an additional scare since several deaths fit the profile of several of the deaths from 1918, but since the Mexican outbreak, the flu hasn’t been nearly as deadly, regressing to fit the behaviour pattern of a “normal” flu- i.e., one that affects the essentially immunocompromised. Why it struck Mexico particularly hard was baffling at first, though it bears mentioning that living conditions in Mexico City- the hardest hit area in Mexico- are still quite depressed (although it is improving) and that perhaps contributed to some deaths. New details have also emerged, suggesting that Mexico vastly underreported its cases and even misidentified some of the cases as “swine flu” when the affliction was another pathogen altogether. Finally, it’s worth noting that since Mexico had its initial outbreak, nothing else has come of it, as the Mexican policy of shutting down the entirety of its capital city for a weekend at the height of the outbreak appeared to curb it, as no new serious news has arisen from Mexico since the initial outbreak.

Since the scare, further research has shown that the flu poses no threat to gain in lethality. Scientists at the University of Maryland mixed swine flu with seasonal flu and concluded that both would not combine into something more lethal. The virus also only showed increased severity in Mexico- everywhere else it has been mild, and as stated before there is reason to believe it wasn’t that dangerous in Mexico at all. Finally, while previously healthy people have come down with severe complications from H1N1, they are the exceptions rather than the rule and in some cases they even had a prior history of medical problems (the 13-year-old boy who died in Toronto did have respiratory problems earlier in his life, for example).

This isn’t to say that we should ignore H1N1- far from it; since it’s new we ought to be cognizant of it. However, overreactions such as refusing to give a graduate a handshake are unnecessary- this isn’t an overtly serious virus and besides, living in fear is no way to combat a virus. I also believe if this virus ever does become more severe- which is doubtful at this stage- we’d all be quarantined and wouldn’t be allowed to interact like we already do; plus we have the capability to fight the flu better than we did in 1918, so any fears of a repeat are unfounded. The only frustrating part about the outbreak is the fact that the vaccination is delayed, but it still doesn’t change the fact this virus isn’t that dangerous.

It doesn’t change the fact that I’m still owed a handshake, so Mr. Tamblyn and my teachers...I’m waiting. Unless you’re worried I’m going to turn you into Skittles.

-DG

Russian fan takes penalty kick into his own hands...or feet

I have a question, my fellow soccer/football fans: how many times have you seen your favourite team get a crucial penalty awarded to them only for the player who took the penalty to muck it up badly? On Saturday, during a game between Moscow sides Spartak and Saturn, a fan couldn't bear the thought of Spartak's Alex (he of the Brazilian national team) taking the penalty he had been awarded in that game, so the fan decided to run onto the field to take the penalty himself. The fan proceeded to run to the ball and stamp it home towards the left side of bemused Saturn goalkeeper Antonin Kinsky. The fan was joined on the field by his friend, who went to Alex and tried to hug him. I'm not sure what happened to the fans, but as for Alex, he would hit the penalty (in the exact same spot as the fan did) once he got a chance to actually take it. You can view the video here:



Was there a reason for the fan to worry about Alex's penalty-taking ability? The fan was likely drunk and wanted to be stupid (that being the sole motivation) but Alex hadn't taken a penalty in nearly two months (the last one being on July 26 against CSKA) and this being an important game (Spartak was six points behind leaders and defending champion Rubin Kazan entering the contest with mid-table Saturn) you could understand if the Spartak fans were a little antsy. Alex's conversion leveled the contest at 1, but to Alex's (and probably the fan's) chagrin, Spartak would lose the game on Marko Topic's 53rd minute goal, and- after Rubin's 0-0 draw with FK Tom' Tomsk- fell to seven points behind Rubin with eight games to go. Hey, maybe Spartak can coax the fan to come back...they may need him for the stretch run just so they can have a chance.

-DG

Jays need a 'Halladay' from Ricciardi

Several years ago, I was a Cub Scout leader at the local group (or “Pack” as we called them, because the organization we commonly call “Cub Scouts” are officially known as “Wolf Cubs”). We would hold several camps and at these camps there would obviously be a campfire and skits. One of these skits involved three or four people, with one of the actors playing a “used brain” salesman. One by one, the other actors would go to the salesman to buy a used brain (which were the brains of people in the group, and if the kids were the actors, the used brains were those of the leaders). The first few used brains would go for small prices, usually $10 or $20, but the final one would be much more expensive. The cost of that brain would be $1 million, to which the buyer would inquire why that person’s used brain is that expensive. Then the salesman would utter the punchline- “because it’s never been used”.

Sometimes I wonder if Toronto Blue Jays General Manager J.P. Ricciardi’s brain is one of those million-dollar brains.

During the Canada Day/Independence Day weekend, Ricciardi shocked the baseball world by saying that he would “listen” to offers made to acquire the Jays’ legendary ace Roy Halladay in a trade. Previously it was thought that Halladay would have been untouchable, being the “one-of-a-kind” generational talent that one could never expect to fully replace in a trade. Yet without actually outright declaring he would be dealt, Ricciardi opened the door for a trade, even if it is open just a crack.

The merits of such a trade have been a matter of debate since Ricciardi decided to open his mouth. On one side, Halladay is one of- if not the- best pitcher in the majors and likely a sure-fire Hall of Famer; so one wonders if the Jays can actually adequately replace him. On the other hand, the Jays have posted an abysmal 20-37 mark since an oft-mentioned 27-14 start, a .350 winning percentage. Extrapolated over the entire season, the Jays’ mark would only be better than the Washington Nationals, definitely not company Toronto had envisioned when the season began.

Thus Ricciardi probably believes the season is a wash and believes that Toronto is firmly a seller in 2009, putting Halladay at the top of the display case. Furthermore, Halladay’s contract ends in 2010, so the thinking may go that with the ship sinking and the market for a rental typical lower than a player with time left on his contract, “now” may be the best time to make a trade. However, Ricciardi also knows he can’t actively sell his franchise player, as such a move would receive the scorn of fans and lower Halladay’s trade value, since teams know they wouldn’t need much enticing to pry a Halladay they *know* is available. So in insinuating that Halladay is available, Ricciardi saves face by not appearing to actively shop his best player (making only the most gullible of Jays fans believe that Halladay is actually sticking around) and forcing teams to make quality offers for the Jays’ star pitcher, since Halladay isn’t “officially” on the market. Of course, it also means that if Ricciardi accepts a lowball offer he would receive more blame than he would if he was forced to trade Halladay, since it appeared he would only accept a “quality” offer for the player.

I need not now discuss the market for Halladay, since it’s already being hotly debated around the baseball world and, of course, there are no shortage of suitors for the Toronto ace. Instead, this is about declaring the ordeal- regardless of whether or not Halladay is actually moved- as undoubtedly Ricciardi’s lowest moment as GM, which says a lot for a GM whose reign spans almost the entirety of Halladay’s major league career. Presumably, Halladay is the kind of player teams are built around and the admission that the team wants to trade him (however slight) is the admission that, all along, the team failed to adequately support Halladay’s talents. No longer can Ricciardi argue that his moves are part of “a plan”- when you’re so much as hinting at trading away the man you’re supposed to be building around, you’re making a new plan, no matter how you swing at it.

What, then, *was* Ricciardi’s original plan, the one that did not work so well? It’s very hard to figure out, since it seemed almost on a yearly basis the team was turning over talent, rarely doing as much as keeping the core intact year to year. What is known is that since Ricciardi took over, he hasn’t groomed a single player through the Jays’ minor league ranks to an elite-level talent. The Jays’ top players- except for Alex Rios and perhaps Aaron Hill (neither being elite talents, and Hill will need more time for evaluation lest 2009 be a “flukey” year)- are all either trade or free agent acquisitions (Scott Rolen, Lyle Overbay, Marco Scutaro, Rod Barajas) or present from before Ricciardi’s tenure with the Jays (Halladay and Vernon Wells). Ricciardi’s continuing answer to all of Toronto’s problems is apparently by making a big free agent signing or trade instead of growing the player from within, a policy that makes the team look great on paper but has led to more disappointments than successes (e.g. David Eckstein, Frank Thomas). From one year to the next Toronto’s playing style differs dramatically, as the Jays’ coaching staff is continually asked to adjust to a carousel of player changes every season, which is small wonder why they ultimately fail. Ricciardi does not appear to grasp the fundamentals of team building- he needs to decide what kind of team Toronto is and acquire players that fit that mould, not constantly change the feathers because a big name is available. The success of the Rays hinges on the fact that they understand the “team” concept- the players they have are all fast and aggressive, either on the mound or offensively, and any player they acquire fit into that mould. Tampa Bay is also not afraid to develop players just so they can ensure players rising through their system are brought up learning “the Tampa Bay way of doing things”. It may have taken them a long time to accomplish that task but at least the team is patient enough to see that process through. Ricciardi, on the other hand, panics when he sees a hole in the ship, deciding a wooden plank is sufficient when he’s steering it right into the iceberg.

Thus, this is another call for the Blue Jays to make the right decision and send Ricciardi on his way. One could hope a Halladay deal could signal a change in the course of Blue Jay thinking and get Toronto to start properly developing players but with Ricciardi’s extensively poor track record, there’s hardly a reason to believe the next few years are going to play out any differently. The Jays need a GM who knows what kind of team he wants to build and is unafraid to build that kind of team, even if it means passing up on a big name acquisition. Only then will all the “hope” Ricciardi has been promising be delivered, because then there’d actually be something one could plant a realistic hope for.

-DG

Two deals that went wrong for San Jose

On May 4, 2004, the San Jose Sharks clinched their first ever trip to the Western Conference Final by defeating the Colorado Avalanche 3-1. The Sharks made it unnecessarily hard by squandering two straight overtime games to the Avs after compiling a 3-0 series lead, but they wouldn’t allow Colorado a historic comeback to make history of their own. It may be true that San Jose would go belly up against the Calgary Flames in the Conference Final, shooting only 37 times in Games 5 and 6 (scoring just once), but it appeared that San Jose had finally joined the NHL’s elite with their 2004 run.

Then, that summer, the Sharks decided that Vincent Damphousse and his declining stats were enough of a reason to let him walk as an unrestricted free agent, with Damphousse signing with Colorado that off-season. Damphousse wouldn’t play another game in the NHL as the lockout wiped out the 2004-05 season, but it still didn’t change the fact the Sharks didn’t think their scoring leader for the 2004 playoffs deserved another shot, even at just 36.

San Jose still figured to be safe with its young talent appearing to emerge in the previous season’s playoffs, but a terrible start to the 2005-06 season precipitated the need for change. On November 30, 2005, the Sharks dealt Marco Sturm, Wayne Primeau and Brad Stuart to the Boston Bruins for Bruin captain Joe Thornton, a deal which essentially meant that the Sharks made a mistake in letting Damphousse walk. Thornton would deliver initially, leading the Sharks from 13th in the West all the way to 5th by season’s end, setting up a playoff date with the Nashville Predators in Round One. San Jose would easily dispose of the Predators before falling to the Cinderella Edmonton Oilers in Round Two; and since then the Sharks have failed to reach the Conference Final despite posting good regular season totals. Now, with San Jose on the brink of yet another remarkable failure- down 3-1 in the first round to the Anaheim Ducks despite being President’s Trophy winners- an explanation is needed for the Sharks’ troubling post-season play (as it truly appears to be a team effort). I just may have the answer, even if it’s out of left field.

That answer is the Sharks made two critical inter-related mistakes in letting go of Damphousse and the triumvirate that went to Boston for Thornton. No, it’s not another edition of “Joe Thornton isn’t a great leader” argument, because Thornton isn’t a captain (Patrick Marleau is the captain of San Jose)- rather, it’s that both of those moves seemed to remove intangibles that allowed San Jose to be competitive in the post-season.

In the case of Damphousse, the case is easy because it’s clear his leadership was missed in 2005-06, which was apparent long before Thornton came around. As good as players like Marleau, Alyn McCauley (back when he actually played) and Nils Ekman were, none of them held the same leadership pedigree as Damphousse did. He was only one of three Sharks on the 2004 playoff team that had a Cup ring (Mike Ricci- also let go after 2004- and Scott Parker are the other two), he had been an elite player his whole career and the fact that he led the Sharks in playoff scoring meant that he still could play at an elite level at that stage of his career. The incoming salary cap probably meant that he was a goner anyway, but it appears that San Jose has yet to really replace his auxiliary leadership. One would think Rob Blake- who has the same credentials as Damphousse (elite player, Cup winner)- would be the perfect replacement, but with the Sharks being where they are now, it doesn’t appear that Blake’s influence is having any noticeable effect.

The losses of Stuart, Sturm and Primeau most likely did not cause a drop-off in leadership but perhaps created a void in chemistry. This argument is pure speculation, because statistically, the Sharks are better without the trio and- even combined- there are few who would think they’re equal in value to Thornton (tellingly, the Bruins have only stuck with Sturm- Primeau and Stuart are both gone). There’s also reason to believe that the Sharks are deeper without the trio than they were with them, especially considering that the forward corps (at least) remains consistent with the 2003-04 version- a skilled bunch with a workmanlike mentality. However, when you look at the type of player that each of them were, you’ll start to see their possible value, especially in the playoffs.

Sturm is often compared to Thornton, not just because he was traded for him- he is essentially the “poor man’s Thornton”, in that he is big and skilled (perfect for the playoffs) but nets half the production. He did appear to have remarkable chemistry with Marleau, perhaps because on that line he would not be the focal point of the attack- Marleau would be. With Sturm, the Sharks would have a clear No. 1 centre (Marleau) instead of duelling centres competing for ice time and the switch to this dynamic may be affecting the play of both Marleau and Thornton, who now need to share ice time whereas in San Jose and Boston (respectively) they did not have to.

Primeau’s role on the team encapsulates many of the responsibilities that players like Joe Pavelski and Ryane Clowe fit into now- checking. Clowe and Pavelski are more of two way players than Primeau is, but by 2004, Primeau would be recognized as one of the better checking line centres in the league. Not only that, but Primeau had experience in the playoffs, being the Buffalo Sabres’ third-line centre when the Sabres went on their run to the Cup Final in 1999. He provided stability and leadership to the lower part of the depth chart, an ingredient that appears to be solely lacking on the current team given that the Ducks are just outworking the Sharks in every capacity. If there ever was a spot where veteran leadership is needed, it is on the third lines, because checking one of the most valuable parts of the game. Claude Lemieux and Jeremy Roenick were signed to provide that stability, but it appears that neither are doing their job (at least on a grander scale- individually Roenick has worked hard, at least).

Lastly, losing Stuart changed the dynamics of the defence. It was a long process that started with Stuart that led to this year but no longer is San Jose’s blueline one that is dominated by big men- it’s dominated by finesse types like Dan Boyle and Marc-Edward Vlasic. Douglas Murray has the size capable of replicating the success of Stuart and Kyle McLaren, but so far has failed to live up to that billing. It`s this lack of size on the blueline that is most hurting San Jose in the series, as the Sharks seem to be having difficulty containing the likes of Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf, not to mention their own inability to match up well against Chris Pronger. It is also imperative that an element of size is present along the blueline to win- witness Stuart and his own contributions to Detroit’s Cup win in 2008.

Would the Sharks be better if they kept Damphousse and those three players and not traded for Thornton? Probably not, especially considering that on paper at least the moves the Sharks did make are considerable upgrades and would be moves any hockey GM is likely to make. However, one has to wonder why the supposedly-weaker 2004 playoff team can achieve the heights the current team is incapable of reaching, and one can only conclude that it had to have been the personnel, even if that personnel looks weaker than the current version. Of course, the possibility remains that San Jose’s 2004 adventure might have been a fluke, but we can never know if that is truly the case since we never got to see that team make another run. It is also true that this year’s team can go on a remarkable run and render all this speculation moot, but until that happens, the Sharks’ fanbase is going to demand an answer for all their woes, because the team has unfairly teased them for far too long.

-DG

Into The Crystal Ball 2009 Playoff Edition

What a season that was. Playoff hockey comes to Ohio for the first time in history while it won’t be played in Ontario for the first time since 1992. The Montreal Canadiens celebrated their centenary this season with players who’d rather party than play. The Tampa Bay Lightning go from looking like the league’s darlings to a perennial bad joke, while the Pittsburgh Penguins go from laughingstock to saying “look who’s laughing now”. The Calgary Flames win the trade deadline but it’s the Vancouver Canucks who win the division right from under their noses. Oh, and the Chicago Blackhawks finally make the playoffs after what seemed like an eternity. With that all said, it’s time to look into the orb and reveal who will win the Stanley Cup:

Into The Crystal Ball

(special note: it's too long for the blog so I threw it up as a Web Site)

The best shootout move ever

It may have only been a friendly, but Swedish forward Linus Omark left fans gasping after his amazing shootout goal playing won the game against Switzerland on March 31. Omark- currently on Eliteserien side Lulea HF but also an Edmonton Oilers draft pick- made a long arc from the faceoff circle and skated full speed on Swiss goaltender Marco Bührer. Bührer saw Omark skating across the slot and went down to the ice to attempt a poke check, but Omark proceeded to deftly and softly chip the puck over the helpless goaltender. You can see the move here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_X5FdpsWpg

It was the perfect cap to a thrilling game. The Swiss lead 3-2 with 14 seconds to go before Sweden tied the game on a power play, and Omark's shootout winner was the only goal in a six-round shootout.

If Omark's move looks familiar, that may be because he drew inspiration from Italian soccer star Francesco Totti, whose "cucchiaio" penalty kick style became legendary after using it successfully during Italy's Euro 2000 semifinal penalty shootout win over Holland:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGgOIl7ei3Y&NR=1

The stakes may not have been as high for Omark, but it was still just as impressive nonetheless.

Would you eat this burger?

The West Michigan Whitecaps minor league baseball team has introduced a new menu item this season- a five patty burger with five slices of cheese offered on a 20cm bun with (according to the Associated Press) "liberal" amounts of salsa and corn chips as well as a cup of chili, bringing the total calorie count to 4800 (more than double the recommended daily intake of calories). A Washington dietitian has asked the Whitecaps to call it a "dietary disaster". Meanwhile, Whitecaps spokesman Mickey Graham labelled it a gimmick. Read the AP release here:

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/capress/090331/koddities/bbl_ballpark_burger

It sounds tempting, but it's sure not something I'd want to eat every day. Makes me wonder if anyone's tried eating the world's largest burger (http://www.supersizedmeals.com/food/article.php/20060530193308305).

-DG